10/21/2023 0 Comments World carbon emissions by country![]() Robbie Andrew, senior researcher at the Center for International Climate Research (CICERO) also mapped out the mitigation curves for a 2☌ target. How does this change when we extend the carbon budget to one which limits warming to 2☌? In the section above we looked at the emissions reductions necessary to limit warming to 1.5☌. 4, 5 If we peaked emissions today, we would have to reduce emissions by around 15% each year through to 2040 to limiting warming to 1.5☌ without negative emissions technologies. As of 2019, we can only emit around 340Gt CO 2 before we exceed the 1.5☌ budget – this is equal to around 8 years of current emissions. If emissions had peaked around 2000, for example, global emissions would have had to fall at an average of around 3% per year. What becomes clear is that the later the peak in emissions, the steeper the curve: the longer we wait, the more rapid emissions reductions need to be. For example, the curve ‘Start in 2005’ shows the necessary emissions curve if mitigation had started in 2005. Then, shown are the range of mitigation curves which would be necessary if mitigation (here meaning a near-immediate peak in global emissions then reduction) started in any given year. We first see global emissions to date – sourced from the Global Carbon Project – shown in black. ![]() The visualization here shows the range of mitigation curves necessary to have a >66% chance of limiting warming to 1.5☌. 2, 3 These mitigation curves are based on the assumption of zero negative emissions (actively removing CO 2 from the atmosphere). These ‘mitigation curves’ are based on the carbon budget outlined in the IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5☌ and the methodology for converting a cumulative carbon budget into annual quotas from Michael Raupach, publish in Nature Climate Change. Robbie Andrew’s description of this work, visualizations and open-access data is available here. Robbie Andrew, senior researcher at the Center for International Climate Research (CICERO), mapped out the global emissions reduction scenarios necessary to limit global average warming to 1.5☌. What would it take to limit global average temperature rise to 1.5☌? However, all would require a very urgent and rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions.
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